I have long been skeptical of the Kremlin’s interest in cooperating with the United States on Iran and should confess that I remain so. Almost exactly a year ago, I wrote an analysis arguing that Moscow’s interest in weakening the United States and destroying the so-called unipolar world order trumped its interest in resolving the Iran dispute. The Kremlin views Iran’s nuclear program as the West’s problem:
Clearly, it is not in Moscow's interest to have a nuclear-armed Iran on its southern border with the capability of striking targets within Russia. However, this danger is remote -- it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Iran would risk total annihilation by destroying, say, Russia's Black Sea Fleet or leveling Volgograd with a nuclear strike. And that remote danger is made even more unlikely by repeated U.S. and Israeli declarations that a nuclear-armed Iran is "unacceptable." The refusal of the United States to pull the military option off the table means the worst-case scenario for Moscow, in the event talks fail, is not a mushroom cloud over Kuban but seeing Washington become bogged down in yet another military involvement with the inevitable further sapping of its strength and prestige. The facts that oil prices would also likely skyrocket under such a scenario and that Moscow would emerge as a "reliable energy partner" are probably also not causing Kremlin strategists to lose any sleep.
Comment posted below article by
W. Joseph Stroupe from: USA
September 26, 2009 23:15
It's good to see that someone 'gets it' as far as Russian policy and goals go. And not only Russia, but its strategic partner China also has the strategic aim of weakening the U.S. and the EU. It shouldn't be a surprise. Both sides cleverly employ proxy regimes to weaken the other side by forcing it to engage, make concessions, spend resources, or even invade militarily instead. The West's proxies aimed at weakening Russia-China are Ukraine, Georgia, Taiwan, Tibet, Kosovo, etc etc. The East's proxies are Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and the like. The East is employing its proxies much more cleverly than is the West, and the Game is very likely to go to the East quite soon, as it is reaping geopolitical windfalls from the global financial/economic crisis that is centered in the U.S. and the wider West. Russia-China played the Bushies like the one-dimensional saps they really were, and now they're playing the present U.S. administration for fools too, capitalizing on the kid idealism with which Mr. Obama tries to address the world's gut-wrenching power plays. 3 more years of this hapless strategy will, I'm deeply afraid, set the stage for a wacko evangelical right-wing landslide, a la Palin, in 2012. Such a president will move hard and fast to take back America's "rightful" #1 place in the world. Only problem is, America will be so weakened by then that it won't be up to the challenge, and will most likely instead suffer all the profound ill effects of a colossal over-reach, far worse than what it has suffered already. Advantage: Russia-China and their global partners.
Comment: W Joseph Stroupe is someone to listen to, but here he seems to have slipped back into the false left/right dialectic. If he calls Palin a wacko evangelical right-winger, then isn’t Obama a wacko true believer left-winger?